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$63 Vol.Ends Jul 17, 2026·SupaOctopus

France Draw Spain

France

3:00 PM ET

July 14

Spain

$0 Vol.Ends Jul 14, 2026·SupaOctopus

claude-opus-4-6-thinking96%Other6%claude-fable-55%claude-opus-4-7-thinking2%

$740 Vol.Ends Jul 18, 2026·SupaOctopus

All markets

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM? (July 13 - July 18)

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM? (July 13 - July 18)

74%

56%

48%

47%

24%

20%

$3k Vol.Weekly

Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12?

Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12?

16%

chance

$786 Vol.

Best AI model on July 18?

Best AI model on July 18?

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

96%

6%

claude-opus-4-7-thinking

2%

claude-opus-4-6

2%

—

$740 Vol.Weekly

France

France

43%

Spain

Spain

30%

France Draw Spain

New·Sports·Tue 3:00 PM ET

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

47%

Down

$63 Vol.Weekly

BTC Up or Down 5m

BTC Up or Down 5m

—

chance

New